El Niño is gaining strength and may become one of the most powerful events in recent decades. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency specializing in meteorology and climate, has issued a warning that the phenomenon is expected to intensify further in the coming months, reaching its peak in December 2026. Forecasts also suggest it will persist until February 2027, potentially affecting temperatures and precipitation patterns in many regions worldwide.
According to the climate update released by the organization, surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean could hit record levels between October and December 2026. This anomaly could impact global atmospheric circulation, altering weather patterns and affecting economic activities, ecosystems, and the most vulnerable communities.
El Niño is associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is a major natural driver of climate variability. Its effects can be felt far from its origin, altering temperatures and rainfall patterns. In some areas, it may lead to prolonged droughts, while in others, it increases the likelihood of intense rainfall and flooding.
Experts are particularly concerned about the potential overlap between a strong El Niño event and global warming caused by human activities. The interaction between these phenomena could exacerbate the thermal anomalies observed in recent years, further raising average temperatures in various parts of the world.
"El Niño will continue to strengthen as it approaches the expected peak in December," the WMO stated in its monthly update, highlighting the possibility of above-normal temperatures across much of the planet and significant changes in precipitation distribution.
The organization's director, Celeste Saulo, emphasized that the phenomenon is now fully developed and undergoing rapid intensification. According to the agency's estimates, the likelihood of it persisting until February 2027 is nearly 100%, and its intensity could place it among the most significant episodes recorded since at least 1950.
The impacts, however, will not be uniform. El Niño can have vastly different effects depending on the region and season, making it crucial to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions closely. Seasonal forecasts are therefore essential tools for helping the most exposed countries prepare for potential water, agricultural, and meteorological emergencies.
The coming months will be crucial in assessing the full extent of the event, while the scientific community remains focused on the interaction between natural climate variability and an increasingly pronounced global warming trend.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved