Tensions are escalating once again in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, following fresh clashes on Wednesday between the federal army and the armed wing of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the main player in the bloody civil war from 2020 to 2022.
Both sides are accusing each other of initiating the renewed hostilities. Getachew Reda, a former TPLF leader now aligned with the federal government, claimed that TPLF militias attacked government forces in various locations and took over several regional airports.
Conversely, the TPLF blamed the Addis Ababa government for the clashes, stating they have entered a phase of "defensive war."
The situation remains difficult to verify independently. However, Ethiopian Airlines has confirmed the suspension of flights to some Tigray cities without providing further details.
Link to A Truce Never Fully EstablishedA Truce Never Fully Established
The TPLF is a political and military organization rooted in Tigray and primarily associated with the Tigrayan population. For nearly three decades, from 1991 to 2018, it was the dominant force in Ethiopian politics.
The situation changed with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo ethnic group member. In the following years, relations between the federal government and the TPLF gradually deteriorated, leading to the outbreak of civil war in 2020.
The crisis was fueled by the postponement of national elections and the Tigray authorities' decision to hold a regional vote independently. Addis Ababa deemed this vote illegitimate, and shortly thereafter, political confrontation escalated into armed conflict.
The war lasted two years and had devastating effects on the population. Estimates suggest around 600,000 deaths and between 3 to 5 million displaced people.
The United Nations reported severe violations of international law by various parties involved and indicated potential war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Link to The Pretoria Agreement and Unresolved IssuesThe Pretoria Agreement and Unresolved Issues
In November 2022, the parties signed the Pretoria Agreement, formally ending the war. The agreement included provisions for establishing an interim administration in Tigray and a subsequent return to elections.
However, the agreement did not resolve all issues. A major sticking point was the disarmament of TPLF forces, which was never fully completed.
After a period of relative calm, violence incidents have increased since 2024. Clashes have involved both the Tigrayan militias and the federal government, as well as internal divisions within the TPLF, now split between factions more open to dialogue with Addis Ababa and those more hostile.
In recent months, several observers have warned of a potential new escalation. In February, the Ethiopian government moved some of its troops to Tigray, while over the summer, the TPLF accused federal authorities of conducting numerous drone attacks in the region.
Link to A New Alliance Against Abiy AhmedA New Alliance Against Abiy Ahmed
Complicating the situation further, a new military alliance was formed on Sunday, comprising seven militias active in various parts of Ethiopia.
Among them is the TPLF. The coalition has openly declared its intention to overthrow the government led by Abiy Ahmed.
Some of the groups now part of the alliance had fought alongside the federal government during the 2020-2022 war. However, they later distanced themselves from Addis Ababa, accusing the government of centralizing power and marginalizing certain communities.
Link to Two Rival Administrations in TigrayTwo Rival Administrations in Tigray
The military crisis is intertwined with deep internal political instability.
In May, the TPLF reactivated the regional parliament elected before the war, the same institution whose vote contributed to the 2020 break with the federal government.
This decision effectively undermined the authority of the interim administration established by the Pretoria agreements.
Today, Tigray is home to two opposing power structures. On one side is the interim administration recognized by the federal government and led by General Tadesse Werede. On the other is the administration linked to Debretsion Gebremichael, a long-time TPLF leader elected president by the reactivated regional parliament in May.
The new fighting further destabilizes this fragile balance. It remains unclear whether the recent clashes will mark the start of a new large-scale war, but the combination of military tensions, political divisions, and armed alliances makes the risk of a new escalation particularly real.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved