The conflict that has reignited in northern Ethiopia over the past week may have reached Addis Ababa. Several explosions were heard overnight in the capital, including near the army headquarters in the west and another in the south, close to the intelligence services' offices.
A source linked to the alliance of armed groups opposing Abiy Ahmed's government claimed responsibility for drone attacks on military targets, according to Reuters. However, neither the responsibility nor the nature of the explosions has been independently verified, and Ethiopian authorities have not reported any casualties or damage.
Just hours earlier, the National Intelligence and Security Service indefinitely banned drone flights over Addis Ababa and surrounding areas, citing the need to protect authorities and strategic infrastructure.
If the opposition's claim is confirmed, it would mark the first known drone attack on the capital by anti-government forces, signifying a major shift in a conflict previously confined to the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar.
Link to A New Alliance Against the GovernmentA New Alliance Against the Government
This new escalation follows months of tension between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in Tigray, which fought a devastating war against the federal government from 2020 to 2022.
In September, seven armed movements announced the formation of an alliance with the stated goal of ousting Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing a transitional administration.
The coalition's composition is a significant aspect of the new crisis.
It includes forces that were on opposing sides in the previous war, such as the TPLF and the Amhara Fano movement, whose militias had supported the federal army against the Tigrayans. The new alliance also includes groups from other parts of the country, while in Oromia, the conflict between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army continues.
Rivalries among these forces persist, with deep political and territorial differences. However, the decision to fight a common adversary has temporarily united some of the main insurgencies that had previously confronted the federal government separately.
Fighting is now affecting multiple regions.
Tigrayan forces have conducted operations in Afar, a strategic area due to its transportation routes connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti and its ports. According to a humanitarian source cited by AFP, tens of thousands have fled their homes.
In Amhara, battles are also occurring around Lalibela, a UNESCO World Heritage city, where some foreign tourists have been trapped due to clashes between the army and Fano.
On the opposite front, federal forces and pro-government militias are advancing southward in Tigray towards Mekelle, the regional capital. In Alamata, a doctor told the BBC that at least 52 civilians died in three days of intense fighting.
The exact situation on the ground is difficult to ascertain. Telecommunications and internet access in Tigray have been cut off, and much of the information from the parties involved cannot be independently verified.
There are also conflicting accounts of the new offensive's origins. The TPLF claims it responded to an attack by federal forces, including drone bombings. The government, however, asserts that Tigrayan forces initiated hostilities after seizing control of several regional airports.
Link to The Return of the Tigray WarThe Return of the Tigray War
There is concern that Ethiopia is sliding back into a conflict similar to the one that devastated it between 2020 and 2022.
That war began after relations deteriorated between the federal government and the TPLF, quickly escalating into a broader conflict involving Amhara militias and the Eritrean army.
According to an estimate cited by the African Union mediator, around 600,000 people died due to the fighting and its aftermath. However, there is no definitive casualty count, and estimates vary.
In November 2022, the Pretoria agreements halted large-scale hostilities but left unresolved issues: disarmament, control of disputed territories, and the relationship between the federal government and Tigray authorities.
In recent months, that fragile truce has begun to unravel.
Addis Ababa and the TPLF accuse each other of violating the agreement. By July, Tigrayan leaders had declared it essentially failed. Then fighting resumed, with air operations and offensives crossing regional borders.
Link to Accusations Against EritreaAccusations Against Eritrea
The internal war's resumption has been accompanied by a rapid deterioration in relations with Eritrea.
The Ethiopian government accuses Asmara of supporting the new anti-government alliance, with similar accusations made against Sudan and Egypt. All three countries deny these claims.
In a rare interview with the BBC, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the accusations, arguing that Abiy Ahmed's government has developed a habit of blaming neighboring countries for Ethiopia's numerous internal conflicts.
However, other accounts from the front suggest otherwise.
A pro-government militia commander in Tigray told the BBC that Eritrean soldiers are involved in the fighting. Recently, Haji Awol Arba, head of the Afar administration, also claimed that Eritrean troops had crossed the border to join the opposition's offensive.
These statements lack independent confirmation. Eritrea denies supporting the new alliance.
This marks a radical reversal from the previous war.
Between 2020 and 2022, Eritrea was a key ally of the Ethiopian federal government. Asmara's soldiers entered Tigray, fighting alongside Abiy's army against the same TPLF that Addis Ababa now accuses Eritrea of supporting.
However, Asmara did not participate in the Pretoria agreements, and relations between the two countries quickly deteriorated after the war ended.
Link to Assab and the Red SeaAssab and the Red Sea
At the heart of the new conflict is Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea.
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993. For a nation of over 130 million people, Abiy Ahmed considers direct access to the coast crucial for security and economic development.
In recent years, the prime minister has increasingly emphasized this issue. Central to the tensions is Assab, the Eritrean port on the Red Sea located about 60 kilometers from the Ethiopian border.
Abiy has even hinted at the possibility of using force to gain control of the port.
Asmara fears that Addis Ababa might attempt to seize Assab and views Ethiopian statements as a threat to its sovereignty.
This issue has contributed to the breakdown between two governments that, just a few years ago, seemed to have ended one of the Horn of Africa's longest hostilities.
When Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, rapprochement with Eritrea was one of his first and most significant acts of leadership. The Ethiopian embassy in Asmara was reopened, and the peace agreement contributed to Abiy receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
During the Tigray war, the two armies fought side by side.
Today, Addis Ababa accuses its former ally of aiding forces fighting the federal government, while Asmara claims the accusations are meant to divert attention from Ethiopia's internal conflicts.
Link to The Rift Between Addis Ababa and AsmaraThe Rift Between Addis Ababa and Asmara
The crisis escalated as explosions were heard in the capital.
The Ethiopian government ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, giving them 48 hours to leave the country. The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry justified the decision by accusing Eritrea of direct and indirect acts of hostility against Ethiopia.
Asmara's response came shortly after: Eritrea announced the severance of all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.
This marks the lowest point in relations between the two countries since their reconciliation in 2018, adding a new layer of uncertainty to a war already involving multiple Ethiopian regions.
The presence of Eritrean soldiers in the fighting remains difficult to verify, as does whether the Addis Ababa explosions were indeed caused by opposition drones.
What is certain is that the line between an internal crisis and a broader regional crisis is becoming increasingly blurred.
Link to From the Peripheries to the CapitalFrom the Peripheries to the Capital
In recent years, Ethiopia has faced more than just the Tigray war.
In Oromia, the conflict with the Oromo Liberation Army continued while international attention was focused on the North. In 2023, another front opened in Amhara, where the Fano—once allies of the government—began fighting against the federal army.
The new anti-government coalition is now attempting to unite conflicts that had previously remained largely separate.
This is the most significant difference from the past.
The forces fighting against Addis Ababa do not belong to a single region and do not necessarily share the same political agenda. Some were once enemies. But today, they claim to have a common goal: to remove Abiy Ahmed's government.
The explosions in the capital, if the opposition's claim is confirmed, would also demonstrate a military capability not previously recognized.
Anti-government forces were not thought to be capable of using armed drones. However, recent signals suggest they may have at least limited capabilities in this area. A pro-government militia reported seizing drone facilities and batteries belonging to forces linked to the TPLF.
For the federal government, this would be a significant change. Air superiority has been one of Addis Ababa's main military advantages in recent conflicts.
Link to The Risk of a Broader ConflictThe Risk of a Broader Conflict
Ethiopia now faces a crisis unfolding on multiple fronts simultaneously.
In the North, federal forces are advancing towards Mekelle while the opposition fights in Afar and Amhara. In the capital, explosions of uncertain origin have raised fears that the war could reach Addis Ababa. Along the northern border, relations with Eritrea have shifted from mutual accusations to a complete diplomatic breakdown.
All this is happening in one of the continent's most unstable regions.
To the west, Sudan is ravaged by war between the army and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces. To the north, tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt are fueled by disputes over the Nile. The Red Sea is a nexus of economic, military, and strategic interests involving various regional and international actors.
The new Ethiopian war risks developing in a very different context from that of 2020.
At that time, Eritrea and Ethiopia fought on the same side against the TPLF.
Today, the TPLF is once again fighting the federal government, but alongside some who were its enemies during that war. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of supporting them. Asmara denies this and counters by accusing the Ethiopian government of externalizing the causes of its crises.
Meanwhile, the two countries that celebrated peace in 2018 have severed diplomatic relations.
It is still unclear whether the explosions heard in Addis Ababa truly signify the war's arrival in the capital. But they occurred as fighting spreads, old alliances are overturned, and tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea reach levels not seen in years.
The fear is no longer just of a renewed war in Tigray. It is that the conflict could extend beyond northern Ethiopia, adding another front to the crises already affecting the Horn of Africa.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved